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I understand that there are many members who are very concerned about the next step that the US may take, and that next step may eventually lead into North Korea, and the North may eventually attack the South as a result. That is the main concern here: a possible war in the Korean peninsula.
Now lets examine some similarities and many differences between the Iraqi and the North Korean situations first. By doing so, the readers will have much better understanding on many possible future outcome.
The war scenario with the North is very different from that of the Iraqi War.
***** with Iraq *****
--- the US had time for strategic (and logistic) preparations (troop build-up around Iraq) for a minimum loss on the US side.
--- the Iraqi military capability was already significantly reduced before the ground war begun.
--- Establishment of a post-war interim government (this is much much more difficult to do than what it looks like on TV)
--- Post-war reconstruction cost almost completely paid by the sales of Iraqi oil.
--- with money (oil) and a new democratic government, Iraq will become a rich country in a relatively very short time period.
***** with North Korea *****
It is safe to assume that almost everything is 180-degree opposite, compare to the Iraqi situation.
--- the US will not have any time for logistic preparation like she did for the second Iraq-War. If Pyoungyang senses any war preparation on the US side around the Korean peninsula, there is almost 100% chance that the North will attack the South long before the US preparation is ready.
We all know how long it will take for 250,000 US soldiers to be ready for the next Korean War.
--- the NK’s military capability is improving, although very slowly. They know that NK does not have power nor resources for any prolonged war. It will be a very quick war, even shorter than the Second Iraq War.
--- New government in Pyoungyang --- it is the easiest one to manage…just send already well prepared Seoul people to Pyoungyang. So continuation of governing power will be in place. We will not see any looting public events in Pyoungyang, like we all saw in Baghdad.
--- Who will pay for the reconstruction of the North after the war (if there is a war)? Only one nation is capable of managing this financial task. And that nation is not Japan, China, Russia, or any nation of the UN coalition. South Korea does not have that kind of financial resource, either.
Now, let’s examine what Washington thinks of Pyoungyang first, then the new Seoul government, then we will talk about the USFK (US Forces in Korea, Joo-Hahn-Mee-Goohn).
Pyoungyang ***************************
Pyoungyang’s nuclear ambition will be dealt with one way or the other (peacefully or by militarily). As we have discussed many times before, Washington will never make the same mistake --- 1994 Agreement. Moreover, Pyoungyang’s nuclear threat is more real than most Koreans would like to believe.
The best option for the Great General Kim to take will be giving up (complete elimination of) of any nuclear weapons program.
If he does not, and if he continues with the nuclear weapons programs,
Those nuclear program sites will be bombed and completely destroyed.
In return, if he retaliates in any shapes or forms, he will be killed. In addition, his son and a few top ranking Pyoungyang officers will be killed, too. (This is a very sensitive area we would rather not discuss.)
Then, possible reunification of the two Koreas.
One old mistake that the US made in 1950…not dealing with China and Russia in advance.
The US will not make the same mistake. China and Russia will be dealt with well in advance to avoid any military involvement from their parts.
In addition, unlike how Iraq was to some parts of the world, the North Koreans do not have "friends".
Seoul, South Korea, and the new government ******************
In Washington, the current Seoul politicians are famous for their anti-US political views. Although, on many Korean newspapers and news, it seems that the Seoul politicians are changing their anti-US policies to neutral-US to pro-US policies, nobody here believe what the Seoul politicians say.
Please put yourself in a Washington politician chair and examine what has happened thus far.
Mr. Noh MH, when he was younger, he was a famous anti-America-movement organizer. There are many photographs that show Mr. Noh and his friends burning an US flag. Now, he says he is not an anti-US politician.
Then, Seoul sent some number of politicians to "ease the tension" between Seoul and Washington and try to resolve any misunderstanding.
That is fine.
But let’s take look at the details.
All, I mean all, Seoul representatives who came to Washington are famous anti-America-movement people. I know members here know about these people’s history as well as anybody else.
When they are (were) in Washington, what they said had shocked the Washington. They simply reiterated what Pyoungyang has been saying. It was like listening to a tape-recorder.
Now, if you are a Washington politician, what will you be thinking about The New Seoul?
There is a one old continuing and very notoriously famous story spreading in Washington that started during Mr. Noh MH’s Presidential Inauguration ceremony. And it is getting worse as the North Korean situation is getting worse.
( I am very surprised that this event did not make any news in Korea. But, as you know, the ceremony was televised live (Sehng-Bahng-Song) all over the world.)
At the very beginning of the ceremony, when Mr. Noh and new First Lady appeared on center stage, and they started greeting foreign dignitaries one by one ( Noh shaking hands…), Noh greeted and shook hands of a few dignitaries, then when it was a turn to greet Secretary Colin Powell, Noh suddenly stopped and turned his back on Powell when Powell had his hand ready to shake Noh’s hand. Do you remember Powell’s facial expression and body language at that moment? Worse yet, the entire event was being televised throughout the world.
On a side, let’s see what you would say if Bush had done the same thing to a South Korean delegate in Washington. You would probably say something like "…@#X%$V*&…".
The same thing in Washington.
Now, if you were a Washington politician, how much would you trust Seoul and what they say?
What do you call those people whose actions are different from what they say?
The USFK **************************
As I have said many times before, due to ever-evolving technology, Korean "land" is not as important as it once was in that part of the world. Moreover, new American military units are popping up in Japan nowadays. In a retrospect, Korean military/economy had a big chance last year. The chance is gone.
It is inevitable that, at least, some partial USFK withdraw is eminent.
The White House and the Senate made it very clear that the USFK will withdraw from South Korea if the USFK is not welcome there. And Seoul made it even clearer that the USFK is no longer welcome there, just look at the Blue House and all the Seoul delegates in Washington.
Besides, Mr. Noh made many USFK withdraw process speeches before he was elected and after he became a President.
Washington may be slow on catching up with Seoul events, but we are not stupid.
What Washington wants…
Total evacuation of the Second Division from the DMZ…including complete withdraw from Korea in longer term.
Relocation of all (yes, "all") key US military installations away from the North’s immediate strike zones.
Japan’s and Guam’s…
The way Washington sees current Seoul situation…
Seoul politicians in power are generally very anti-America and they do not want the USFK.
On the other hand, high ranking RoK Generals want to keep the USFK where they are.
We all know that the generals do not make policies, politicians do.
And, if you look at results from the first US-Korea meeting on the USFK matters, you will soon realize that absolutely nothing was agreed on. The second meeting will be in Washington.
I really hate to admit this, but the Great General Kim is a great politician in his own world…using his enemy’s resources to convert the enemy to defeat.
Sincerely,
Hwa Lahng
7880
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