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"Çѱ¹ ÀºÇàµéÀÇ ¿ÜÈ­ À¯µ¿¼º ºÎÁ· ÃæºÐÈ÷ ÇØ°á °¡´É"

2008-10-08 21:39:43 ±â»çÇÁ¸°Æ® ±â»ç¸ðÀ¸±â





±¹Á¦½Å¿ëÆò°¡»çÀÎ ¹«µð½ºÀÇ °æÁ¦¿¹Ãø ºÎ¹® ÀÚȸ»çÀÎ ¹«µð½ºÀÌÄÚ³ë¹Ì´åÄÄÀº 8ÀÏ ¡°Çѱ¹ Á¤ºÎ´Â Çö ¿Üȯº¸À¯°í¸¦ ÀÌ¿ëÇØ ÀºÇàµéÀÇ ¿ÜÈ­ À¯µ¿¼º ºÎÁ· ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÃæºÐÈ÷ ÇØ°áÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù¡±¸é¼­µµ °­¸¸¼ö ±âȹÀçÁ¤ºÎ Àå°üÀÇ °¡º­¿î ¹ß¾ðÀÌ Çѱ¹ ±ÝÀ¶½ÃÀå À§±â¸¦ ÁõÆø½ÃÄ×´Ù°í ÁúŸÇß´Ù.

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<Çѱ¹¿¡¼­ Ä¿Áö´Â ÀºÇà ½ºÆ®·¹½º>¸¦ ÅëÇØ Çѱ¹ ÀºÇàµéÀÌ Á÷¸éÇÑ °úµµÇÑ °¡°èºÎä ¹× ºÎ½ÇÀÚ»ê Áõ°¡ °¡´É¼ºÀ» À§Ç輺À» Á÷¸éÇϸ鼭µµ ¡°Çѱ¹ Á¤ºÎ´Â ¹æ´ëÇÑ ±Ô¸ðÀÇ ¿Üȯº¸ À¯¾×À» º¸À¯Çϰí ÀÖ´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°Çѱ¹¿¡¼­ 1997³â¿¡ ¹ß»ýÇÑ ¿ÜȯÀ§±â°¡ Àç¹ßÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù´Â ¿ì·Á´Â °úÀ嵯´Ù¡±¸ç Á¦2 ¿ÜȯÀ§±â ¹ß¹ß °¡´É¼ºÀ» ÀÏÃàÇß´Ù.

¹«µð½ºÀÌÄÚ³ë¹Ì´åÄÄÀº ±×·¯³ª ¡°Áö±Ý ÅõÀÚ°¡µéÀº ±Øµµ·Î ¿¹¹ÎÇØ Á¤ºÎ°¡ ±ÝÀ¶À§±â¸¦ ÀáÀç¿ì±â À§ÇØ ³»³õ´Â ¸»À̳ª ÇൿÀÌ ¿ÀÈ÷·Á Á¤¹Ý´ëÀÇ È¿°ú¸¦ °¡Á®¿Ã ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°À̹ø ÁÖ ÃÊ °­¸¸¼ö ±âȹÀçÁ¤ºÎ Àå°üÀÌ ¡®±¹³» ÀºÇàµéÀÌ ¿ÜÈ­À¯µ¿¼º ºÎÁ· »óȲ¿¡ Á÷¸éÇØ ÀÖ´Ù¡¯°í ¹ß¾ðÇÏÀÚ ÀºÇàÁÖ°¡ Æø¶ôÇÑ °Íó·³ ½ÇÁ¦ »óȲÀ» ´õ ¾ÇÈ­½Ãų ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ºÎÁ¤ÀûÀÎ ¹ß¾ðÀº ÀÚÁ¦ÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù¡±°í ÁöÀûÇß´Ù.

±¹Á¦½Å¿ëÆò°¡±â°üÀ¸·ÎºÎÅ͵µ ÁúŸ¸¦ ¹ÞÀ» Á¤µµ·Î °­ Àå°üÀÇ ±¹³»¿Ü ½Å·Úµµ´Â ±Þ¶ôÇÑ ¸ð¾ç»õ´Ù.

´ÙÀ½Àº ¹«µð½º°¡ À̳¯ ¹ßÇ¥ÇÑ º¸°í¼­ ¿ø¹® Àü¹®.

Moody's, "Banking Stress Growing in South Korea"

Hong Kong, 2008-10-08 (Korea Newswire) -- Problems in global credit
markets come at a particularly bad time for Korea. Its balance of payments has deteriorated markedly; South Korea will post a current account deficit this year, the first since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The deterioration occurred for a number of reasons. Although exports are strong—growing 28.7% y/y in September—imports are soaring, rising 45.8% that month. This is mainly due to the high price of oil. Slowing domestic growth prospects are also causing foreign investors to repatriate capital and has weakened the currency, pushing up the cost of imports.

Net savings among households and businesses are low, and private sector debt is 180% of GDP. The government¡¯s provision of $5 billion to Export-Import Bank of Korea, a state owned bank, to ease funding constraints among exporters, was a reminder that many other banks may face a rise in non-performing loans because of slowing exports and growth.

Investors are nervous. Government words and action, in an attempt to calm financial markets, have lately had the opposite effect, and may risk
creating a self-fulfilling downward cycle. Finance minister Kang Man-soo earlier this week declared local banks face foreign currency liquidity shortages. Bank stocks plummeted. The remarks were clarified by a vice finance minister—banks will not face a liquidity problem ¡®until year end¡¯. Twelve-month Koribor is now at the highest since it started being recorded in 2004. The won was sold off, dropping 15% against the dollar from the beginning of the week.

Fears of a wide-ranging crisis, on the scale of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, are however overblown. South Korea has vast foreign reserves, which the government will use to ease foreign currency liquidity constraints among banks. Although they have intervened at times to prop up the won, the government appears resigned to letting the won reflect its fundamental value and watching it tumble. Falling oil prices will ease the import burden, while a weak currency will make exports more competitive.

Alaistair Chan is an Associate Economist based in the Sydney office. Alaistair received his Honours degree in Economics at The University of Western Australia.

¹«µð½ºµµ ÇѸ¶µð Çß±º¿ä.

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