아시아위크誌, '햇볕정책 종말시작'
작년 김대중 대통령과 김정일 북한 국방위원장의 역사적 포옹은 남북한 간에 수십년 동안 지속돼 온 냉전을 종식시킬 시작으로 보였고, 결국 김 대통령에게 노벨상도 안겨주었지만, 1년이 지난 지금엔 결국 햇볕정책의 종말이 시작되는 것 같다고 홍콩의 영자 주간지 ‘아시아위크’ 최근호(9월14일자)가 보도했다.
이 주간지는 ‘해가 움직인다(There goes the sun)’는 제목의 주요기사에서 임동원 전 통일부 장관 해임건의안이 국회에서 통과되면서 김 대통령 정부와 햇볕정책 모두에 먹구름이 드리워졌다면서 “북한측이 돌연 남북회담을 제의하고, 지난 3일 장쩌민(江澤民) 중국 국가주석이 김정일에게 남북한 관계개선을 강조했지만, 현 햇볕정책에 대한 한국인들의 신뢰를 되살리는 데는 이미 너무 늦은 감이 있다”고 지적했다.
아시아위크는 “김 대통령이 어려움에서 벗어나기 위해서는 햇볕정책을 수정하고 탄력적인 입장을 보여줘야 한다”는 연세대 신명순 교수의 말을 인용하면서 “그렇지 않을 경우 김 대통령은 완전한 레임덕 대통령이 될 것이며, 그것은 개혁의 고통과 경기 침체와 맞서 싸우는 나라로서는 어떻게든 피해야 할 길”이라고 주장했다.
아시아위크는 또 “야당측은 임동원 장관 불신임안 통과로 김 대통령이 국민들 뜻에 반해 고비용의 대북사업을 추진한다는 주장이 옳았음을 입증했다”면서 “불신임안 통과는 현 정부가 국민여론에 귀를 막고 김 대통령이 독단의 길을 걸어왔음을 보여주는 한 예”라는 한국정치학회 김영래 회장의 말을 인용하기도 했다.
SEPTEMBER 14, 2001
There Goes The Sun
South Korea's unification minister is forced out, leaving a cloud over President Kim Dae Jung's 'sunshine policy' - and over his government
By ROGER DEAN DU MARS
When South Korean President Kim Dae Jung hugged North Korea's Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang last year, the gesture seemed to herald a new era. That golden moment, which eventually led to Kim Dae Jung winning the Nobel Peace Prize, was meant to mark the beginning of the end of the decades-long hostility between the two Koreas - the last front of the Cold War.
A year on, that historic embrace may indeed turn out to be the beginning of the end - but of the "sunshine policy" that brought about the summit in the first place. Last week's abrupt resignation of Lim Dong Won, South Korea's unification minister, has left President Kim's policy of engaging the North without its key advocate and implementer. Lim was forced out by an opposition angry at a freewheeling North Korea policy that seemed to have no checks and balances. After months of ignoring Kim Dae Jung, Pyongyang recently indicated it was ready to talk again. But the political storm engulfing Lim's departure has put the whole policy of engagement under a cloud - and Kim's government in danger of fracturing into irrelevance. "With Lim resigning, Kim Dae Jung will have a harder time advancing the sunshine policy," says Kim Seok Joon, professor of political science at Ewha Womans University. "South Korea is in chaos."
As minister of unification, Lim was instrumental in brokering the détente between Seoul and Pyongyang last year. The Pyongyang summit was his crowning achievement. But as the North subsequently grew less cooperative - the reciprocal visit to Seoul promised by Kim Jong Il, for instance, never materialized - the South Korean public grew tired of getting nothing in return for all the aid sent to the North. In such an atmosphere, Lim was playing with fire when he backed a visit by a South Korean delegation to a unification festival in Pyongyang last month. The event was blasted by many as a propaganda tool for Pyongyang, and when some of the delegates appeared to praise Kim Jong Il and support the North Korean formula for reunification, all hell broke loose in the South. Upon their return, seven of the delegates were detained for pro-North activities.
Sensing blood, conservative factions, which had long castigated the Kim administration for being too soft on the North, pounced on the vulnerable Lim and demanded his resignation. President Kim refused to submit, but the groundswell of anti-sunshine voices only grew. In the end, Lim lost a no-confidence vote in parliament 148 to 119. The United Liberal Democrats (ULD), the coalition partner of Kim's Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), broke away from the alliance and voted against Lim, who tendered his resignation shortly thereafter. Prime Minister Lee Han Dong and the entire 21-member cabinet offered their resignations as a way to show responsibility for the no-confidence vote. For the president's critics, the vote vindicated their charge that Kim was pushing through his sunshine policy against the public will and at the expense of pressing domestic concerns like resuscitating the economy. "This is another example of the government turning a deaf ear to public opinion and Kim going his own way," says Kim Young Rae, president of the Korea Political Science Association.
Now Kim Dae Jung faces an uphill battle - alone. "He is up against a hostile National Assembly as well as sinking public opinion reflected in the no-confidence vote," says Lee Jung Hoon, a professor at Yonsei University's graduate school of international studies. Bearing down on his last year in office, Kim must find another unification minister whom Pyongyang trusts, reshuffle the cabinet, fill the vacuum left by the ULD and steer the MDP toward long-term viability - all enormous tasks.
Few, however, expect him to change his course on the sunshine policy, which is akin to a personal mission. "I will continue to push for inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation to prevent relations between the two Koreas from going backward," Kim was quoted saying after the no-confidence vote. Notes Yonsei's Lee: "For Kim Dae Jung the issue of the unification minister is a question of pride."
But Kim may now find it even more difficult to adhere to his pattern of stubbornly dismissing opposing views. It's not just the plummeting approval ratings; he also has to deal with emboldened and empowered political opponents. The conservative ULD, whose coalition with the liberal MDP had been an unholy alliance at best, is already getting chummy with its ideological cousin, the opposition Grand National Party. There has been talk of a merger. "Our party in fact is similar to the GNP," says ULD floor leader Lee One Ku.
That leaves President Kim with little choice but to work on expanding his base by appealing directly to the public. He rose in politics as a democracy activist, and unions and independent groups were his first supporters. He may now have to turn to them, given that there are few liberal-leaning politicians whom he can recruit from other parties. "Kim has said he will appeal to the public, and I expect he will do this by calling on the NGOs," says professor Kim at Ewha Womans University. "Kim needs the grassroots help to get back on his feet."
Ironically, President Kim's political woes come at a time when there is movement on the North Korea front. Shortly before Lim's no-confidence vote, Pyongyang aired a radio message offering to resume talks with the South. On Sept. 3, Chinese President Jiang Zemin arrived in North Korea, the first such visit by a Chinese leader since Beijing normalized relations with Seoul in 1992. During the three-day tour, Jiang urged his host to open up to the world and reach out to the South. But all this may have come too late to restore South Koreans' faith in the sunshine policy. "In order for President Kim to get out of this mess, he needs to revise the sunshine policy and show flexibility," says Shin Myung Soon, professor of political science at Yonsei University. The alternative is to be a totally lame-duck president - and that is the last thing a country struggling with the pain of reform and recession needs.
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